Anthropic is projecting annual revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028 as bankers and investors assess the Claude developer ahead of a potential initial public offering, Reuters reported on August 15, 2026, citing sources familiar with the matter.
The exclusive report lands less than a week after the Wall Street Journal revealed Anthropic was working to shore up investor confidence ahead of a widely anticipated public debut, and it puts a hard number on the growth story underpinning what could become the largest IPO in history. For ongoing coverage of the valuations and market dynamics reshaping the AI sector, AI Buzz Wire is tracking every major development. For more context on this story, see our ongoing breaking AI news.
From a $47 Billion Run Rate to a $200 Billion Question
The 2028 forecast is audacious by any standard. As coverage of the Reuters report noted, the projection implies revenue soaring from the roughly $47 billion annualized run rate Anthropic reported in May to as much as $200 billion in under three years — a more than fourfold expansion that would require the company to sustain hypergrowth at a scale no software business has ever achieved.
The current trajectory at least points in the right direction. Anthropic reported $11.5 billion in second-quarter revenue and its first operating profit, a milestone that immediately reframed the company from cash-burning research lab to viable enterprise. SemiAnalysis has projected third-quarter profit above $1 billion, and R&D World reported that Anthropic's projected second-quarter revenue came in around $10.9 billion before the stronger final figure landed.
Bankers are reaching past typical valuation timelines to build the case, stretching revenue models out to 2028 and beyond to justify the multiples investors would need to underwrite at IPO.
The $2 Trillion Ambition
The stakes of that forecast are enormous. Multiple outlets have reported that Anthropic's backers are eyeing a valuation as high as $2 trillion if the company goes public as early as October — a figure that would eclipse SpaceX and make it the most valuable public AI company on Earth overnight. Anthropic was last valued around $965 billion in private markets, already the most valuable private AI startup in the world.
Moneycontrol reported that the figure would let Anthropic eclipse SpaceX's record-setting listing, turning the maker of Claude into the most valuable public company created in the past two decades — and doing it, remarkably, on the strength of API revenue and enterprise subscriptions rather than advertising.
Everything now hinges on credibility: a $2 trillion valuation against a $47 billion run rate demands that investors believe the 2028 forecast, and Reuters' reporting suggests the forecast has become the central document in the pre-IPO negotiation.
Skeptics Push Back
Not everyone is buying it. Fortune argued that Anthropic has a "$2 trillion problem" — its underlying business, however fast-growing, is nowhere near the scale that would conventionally support the valuation it wants. R&D World noted backers eyeing the $2 trillion figure even as the company's projected Q2 revenue came in around $10.9 billion.
The broader market context adds pressure. OpenAI's annualized revenue topped $40 billion ahead of its own IPO push, Bloomberg reported this week — a figure that has roughly doubled in months — and CNBC reported that CFO Sarah Friar told investors the company's enterprise business is now bigger than its consumer business by revenue. But CNBC also flagged OpenAI's executive exodus as a "huge red flag" for public-market investors, with Axios describing a pre-IPO leadership refresh that has shed senior executives.
There are geopolitical risks on Anthropic's books, too. Tech Times reported this month that an export control that froze a portion of June revenue remains active — a reminder that Anthropic's growth curve is exposed not only to demand but to Washington's chip and model-export decisions. And the capital environment is tightening at the margins: the Wall Street Journal reported this week that Nvidia has scaled back its planned $250 billion funding guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center to under $120 billion, a signal that even AI's biggest financiers are growing more selective about where they place long-horizon bets.
Every AI lab pitching Wall Street right now faces the same question: are these growth curves durable, or are they the steepest part of an S-curve?
What Happens Next
Anthropic has not confirmed an IPO date, and Reuters' sources caution that deliberations are ongoing. But with revenue disclosures now flowing on a quarterly rhythm, safety reports published on schedule, and bankers stress-testing 2028 models, the machinery of a public debut appears to be in motion.
If the forecast holds, 2028 could see a single AI company generating revenue on par with the world's largest tech incumbents — from a business that barely existed five years earlier. If it slips, the great AI valuation unwind may start at the top.
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