By a three-to-one margin, Americans are more likely to say that China, not the United States, is more advanced when it comes to developing artificial intelligence, according to a new Pew Research Center survey that offers a striking measure of how the public perceives the global AI race.
The findings, published July 23, 2026, come from a nationally representative survey of 3,488 U.S. adults conducted June 22–28, 2026. They reveal a public that views China as the frontrunner in AI even as a large share remains unsure who is actually ahead — a perception gap that colors the wider AI policy debate in Washington.
China seen as the AI leader by a wide margin
When asked which country is more advanced in developing AI, 36% of U.S. adults named China, while only 12% named the United States — a three-to-one gap. Another 18% said the two countries are about equally advanced, and a substantial 33% said they were not sure.
The result is a reversal of the confidence that American leaders often project in public. While officials and executives routinely assert U.S. leadership in AI, the public is far more likely to credit China — or to admit it simply does not know. That uncertainty itself is significant: with a third of adults unable to say who leads, the perceived AI pecking order is far less settled among ordinary Americans than among industry insiders.
Demographic and partisan divides
The perceptions break along clear demographic lines. Men are much more likely than women to say the U.S. is more advanced than China (18% vs. 7%), though pluralities of both groups still name China (31% and 41%, respectively). Partisan differences are similar: 17% of Republicans and Republican leaners say the U.S. leads, compared with 9% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.
Even people who use AI chatbots — arguably the group most attuned to the technology — are more likely to credit China. Among chatbot users, 16% say the U.S. leads and 36% say China does. Among non-users, the spread is even wider: 9% say the U.S., 36% say China, and a far larger 38% are not sure.
How important is it for the U.S. to lead?
Despite the widespread belief that China is ahead, most Americans do think U.S. leadership in AI matters. Around four in ten — 43% — say it is extremely or very important for the U.S. to be the world leader in developing AI, while another 34% call it somewhat important. Only 22% say it is not too or not at all important.
Attitudes here sharpen sharply with age. Just 26% of adults ages 18 to 29 say U.S. AI leadership is extremely or very important, compared with 56% of those 65 and older. Education also tracks with urgency: 50% of college graduates call it extremely or very important, versus 39% of those with some college or less. And by party, 54% of Republicans view leadership as extremely or very important, against 34% of Democrats — a notable inversion given that both parties have made AI competitiveness a stated priority.
AI and the global wealth gap
The survey also probed how Americans expect AI to reshape the global economy. A majority — 51% — said that AI will increase the gap between rich and poor countries overall, a finding consistent with longstanding concerns that the benefits of advanced AI will accrue disproportionately to wealthy nations with the capital, talent, and compute to deploy it.
That pessimism sits uneasily alongside the strong public appetite for U.S. leadership. Americans overwhelmingly want their country to be ahead in AI, but half also expect the technology to widen global inequality — suggesting a public that is simultaneously ambitious about American competitiveness and wary of the societal consequences of the very race it wants to win.
Why public perception matters for the AI race
Perception and reality can diverge sharply in a fast-moving field like AI, but public perception carries real consequences. Voter attitudes shape political appetite for AI research funding, export controls, immigration policy for technical talent, and regulation of frontier models. They also influence how much trust consumers place in AI products and how much scrutiny companies face when they deploy them.
The Pew data suggest that the case for U.S. AI leadership is, at minimum, not a settled one in the public mind. With more Americans crediting China than the United States, and a third uncertain altogether, policymakers and industry leaders making the argument for American preeminence are speaking to an audience that is not yet convinced — and that, in many cases, is looking in the other direction.
The survey was conducted using Pew's American Trends Panel and is designed to represent the views of the full U.S. adult population. Pew has published the survey questions, detailed responses, and methodology alongside the findings.
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